Here's how you know 100% that people have normalcy bias. Lake Mead is dropping like crazy. By 2027 or so (and maybe a lot sooner), Las Vegas will have ZERO water. What's the value of real estate in a city that has zero water? ZERO.

Yet people keep buying homes there with 30-year mortgages. And banks keep financing them. There will be ZERO value in just five years. Are all these people blind to reality?

Normalcy bias makes people totally blind to the direct evidence around them.